基于多隔离策略的新冠肺炎疫情建模及分析

doi:10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2020.09.004

东北大学学报:自然科学版 ›› 2020, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (9): 1239-1243.DOI: 10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2020.09.004

基于多隔离策略的新冠肺炎疫情建模及分析

付强，姚羽

(东北大学计算机科学与工程学院，辽宁沈阳110819)

收稿日期:2020-03-09 修回日期:2020-03-09 出版日期:2020-09-15 发布日期:2020-09-15
通讯作者: 付强
作者简介:付强(1990-)，男，辽宁沈阳人，东北大学博士研究生; 姚羽(1976-)，男，辽宁沈阳人，东北大学教授，博士生导师.
基金资助:
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(N181606001，N2016011，N2024005-1)；辽宁省重点研发计划项目(2019JH2/10100019).

Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19 Based on Multi-isolation Strategy

FU Qiang， YAO Yu

School of Computer Science & Engineering， Northeastern University， Shenyang 110819， China.

Received:2020-03-09 Revised:2020-03-09 Online:2020-09-15 Published:2020-09-15
Contact: YAO Yu
About author:-
Supported by:
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摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对已经爆发的新冠肺炎疫情，考虑多隔离措施建立了非线性传染病模型来研究新冠肺炎疫情的趋势.利用新冠肺炎疫情的全国数据与仿真实验结果的对比拟合，说明了隔离措施对于新冠肺炎防控的重要性.结果表明:如果隔离措施晚执行一周，那么整个疫情的感染人数就将增加近7倍.此外，针对湖北省新增临床确诊病例的措施，进行了仿真实验分析，结果表明:该措施有效地解决了之前可能存在漏诊病例的问题，并可以大幅加快疫情的消亡速度.后续官方公布的实际数据也验证了本文的仿真结果.

关键词: 新冠肺炎, 传染病模型, 基本再生数, 多隔离策略, 模拟仿真

Abstract: Aiming at the outbreak of COVID-19 (corona virus disease 2019)， considering multi-isolation measures， a non-linear infectious disease model was established to study the trend of COVID-19. Comparing the data in China of the COVID-19 with the results of simulation experiments， the isolation measures are important for the prevention and control of COVID-19. The results showed that if the isolation measures were implemented one week later， the number of infected persons in the entire epidemic would increase almost 7 times. In addition， the measure for newly confirmed clinical cases in Hubei Province is analyzed by simulation experiments. The results showed that the measure effectively solved the problem of previously missed cases and can greatly speed up the extinction of the epidemic. Then， the subsequent official data of COVID-19 also agreed with the simulation results.

Key words: COVID-19, epidemic model, basic reproduction number, multi-isolation strategy, simulation

中图分类号:

付强，姚羽. 基于多隔离策略的新冠肺炎疫情建模及分析[J]. 东北大学学报:自然科学版, 2020, 41(9): 1239-1243.

FU Qiang， YAO Yu. Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19 Based on Multi-isolation Strategy[J]. Journal of Northeastern University Natural Science, 2020, 41(9): 1239-1243.

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基于多隔离策略的新冠肺炎疫情建模及分析

Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19 Based on Multi-isolation Strategy

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