东北大学学报（自然科学版）

东北大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2011, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (2): 207-210.DOI: -

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

2012年IPv6网络拓扑演化预测

杨波;赵海;艾君;付瑶;   

  1. 东北大学信息科学与工程学院;
  • 收稿日期:2013-06-19 修回日期:2013-06-19 发布日期:2013-04-04
  • 通讯作者: -
  • 作者简介:-
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(60973022);;

Prediction of IPv6 internet topology evolution in 2012

Yang, Bo (1); Zhao, Hai (1); Ai, Jun (1); Fu, Yao (1)   

  1. (1) School of Information Science and Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China
  • Received:2013-06-19 Revised:2013-06-19 Published:2013-04-04
  • Contact: Zhao, H.
  • About author:-
  • Supported by:
    -

RichHTML

0

PDF (PC)

573

摘要： 首先对网络节点的度和核数进行了幂律分析.基于Internet拓扑演化分析,融合层次模型和ARIMA模型,提出了预测IPv6演化过程的模型.选取CAIDA授权的IPv6 2008-01～2010-04三年期间的数据对模型进行了验证,并用该模型对2012年IPv6网络的各特征量进行了预测.结果表明:IPv6网络具有复杂网络的演化规律;预测模型不仅能够重现过去三年IPv6网络的演化过程,而且也与近一年的IPv6网络演化一致,因此可以推断,该模型能够用于IPv6网络未来演化趋势的预测.以2012年为例,届时IPv6网络的规模将上升到9 729左右,连接数将上升到17 108.

关键词: 再设计互联网, IPv6, 拓扑演化分析, 演化预测, 幂律分析

Abstract: Analyzing the power-law of the degree and coreness of the nodes of network and based on the evolution of Internet topology, the hierarchical model is integrated with ARIMA model so as to propose a prediction model for the evolution of IPv6 network topology. Then, the three years' data of IPv6 from January 2008 to April 2010 as authorized by CAIDA was chosen to verify the model, and the model was used to predict the characteristics of IPv6 network. The results showed that the evolution of IPv6 network follows a complex law. The prediction model is able to not only reproduce the evolution process of IPv6 network in the recent three years but also fit the IPv6 evolution in the last year. It is therefore inferred that the model can be applied to the prediction of the evolutionary trend of the IPv6 network. For example, the size of IPv6 networks will rise to around 9729 in the year 2012, and the number of links will increase to 17108.

中图分类号: