东北大学学报（自然科学版）

东北大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2005, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (8): 787-789.DOI: -

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

辽宁省滨海城市水资源可持续利用研究

付建飞;王恩德;王毅   

  1. 东北大学资源与土木工程学院;东北大学资源与土木工程学院;东北大学理学院 辽宁 沈阳 110004
  • 收稿日期:2013-06-24 修回日期:2013-06-24 出版日期:2005-08-15 发布日期:2013-06-24
  • 通讯作者: Fu, J.-F.
  • 作者简介:-
  • 基金资助:
    辽宁省重大攻关项目(20014011043)．

Sustainable utilization of water resources in littoral cities of Liaoning province

Fu, Jian-Fei (1); Wang, En-De (1); Wang, Yi (2)   

  1. (1) School of Resources and Civil Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, China; (2) School of Sciences, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, China
  • Received:2013-06-24 Revised:2013-06-24 Online:2005-08-15 Published:2013-06-24
  • Contact: Fu, J.-F.
  • About author:-
  • Supported by:
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摘要： 利用模糊模式对辽宁省滨海城市水资源开发程度进行了识别评价,得出其级别特征值为1.763 2,开发程度处于一级和二级之间,接近水资源的承载能力;同时,利用灰色系统建立GM(1,1)和GM(1,2)模型,对滨海城市旱灾、城市人口、生活用水量和用水总量进行预测,预测在2004年和2009年左右,将可能再次出现干旱,到2010年和2020年人口将分别达到720万和910 万,到2010年城市的生活用水量将达到4.46亿t,用水总量将达到9.8亿t,辽宁省滨海城市水资源的供需矛盾将进一步加剧.

关键词: 辽宁省滨海城市, 模糊模式, 灰色预测, 水资源, 可持续利用

Abstract: Evaluates how the water resource were exploited in the littoral cities of Liaoning province in a fuzzy mode. The results show that the eigenvalue of exploitation level is 1.7632, i.e., a value between the first and second levels and approaching to capacity of water resource. Predictes the possible drought, increasing urban population, water consumption for people's daily life and grass consumption in littoral cities by establishing GM (1,1) and GM (1,2) models based on the gray system. The result shows that there will be droughts in 2004 and 2009, and the urban population will be up to 7.2 million in 2010 and 9.1 million in 2020, and the daily life water consumption and gross consumption will be up to 446 million ton and 980 million ton in 2010, respectively. It is thus estimated that there will be a keener contradiction between water demand and supply in these cities.

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