东北大学学报:自然科学版 ›› 2019, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (8): 1211-1216.DOI: 10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2019.08.026

• 管理科学 • 上一篇    

辽宁省碳排放预测及最优情境选择

侯卉, 殷赟, 卜曼曼, 何杰   

  1. (东北大学 工商管理学院, 辽宁 沈阳110169)
  • 收稿日期:2018-07-16 修回日期:2018-07-16 出版日期:2019-08-15 发布日期:2019-09-04
  • 通讯作者: 侯卉
  • 作者简介:侯卉(1970-),女,辽宁沈阳人,东北大学教授.
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(71873027); 辽宁省社会科学基金资助项目(L18BJL011); 东北大学2018教改项目:经济虚拟仿真实验教学中心建设.

Prediction of Carbon Emission and Selection of Optimal Scenario in Liaoning Province

HOU Hui, YIN Yun, BU Man-man, HE Jie   

  1. School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China.
  • Received:2018-07-16 Revised:2018-07-16 Online:2019-08-15 Published:2019-09-04
  • Contact: HOU Hui
  • About author:-
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摘要: 基于经济发展增速和节能减排约束,结合碳排放影响因素的LMDI分解模型,将经济社会发展变量和节能减排变量的相互不同模式组合为六种情境,运用扩展的SPIRPAT模型对各情境下的辽宁省2016—2040年的碳排放进行预测分析,得出“中增长强减排”情境是辽宁未来发展的最佳选择.在最优情境下,2020年辽宁较2015年的能源消费增量远低于3550万吨标准煤的约束标准;非化石能源比重在2020年完成省规划目标,在2030年完成国家规划目标;碳排放量降幅在2023年达到峰值,2020年和2030年较2005年的碳排放强度降幅超额完成国家规划目标.若能有效转变经济发展方式、调整产业结构尤其是降低工业比重、提升能源利用效率,加大清洁能源的开发利用,辽宁完全可以不以牺牲经济发展为代价而达到节能减排的目的.

关键词: 碳排放, 能源消耗, 情境预测, 经济发展, 节能减排

Abstract: Based on the economic development growth rate,energy-saving and emission-reduction constraints, and LMDI decomposition model of the factors that influence carbon emission, the different models of economic/social development variables and energy-saving/emission-reduction variables were combined into six scenarios. The extended SPIRPAT model is used to predict and analyze the carbon emission of Liaoning from 2016 to 2040, and it is concluded that the ‘medium growth and strong emission-reduction’ scenario is the best choice for Liaoning. Under the optimal scenario, the increase of energy consumption in Liaoning in 2020 over 2015 will be much lower than the constraint standard. The provincial planning target of non-fossil energy sources proportion will be reached in 2020 and the national planning target will be reached in 2030. The drop of carbon emission will reach its peak in 2023, and the reduction in carbon emission intensity in 2020 and 2030 over 2005 will exceed the national planning target. If the government can change the mode of economic development effectively, adjust the industrial structure, and improve the development and utilization of clean energy, Liaoning would be able to achieve the goal of energy-saving and emission-reduction without the expense of economic development.

Key words: carbon emission, energy consumption, scenario prediction, economic development, energy-saving and emission-reduction

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