高温熔融金属作业安全完整性评价

doi:10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2021.04.017

东北大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 576-581.DOI: 10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2021.04.017

高温熔融金属作业安全完整性评价

吴雅菊^1,2，许开立¹，王若菌¹，徐晓虎¹

(1. 东北大学资源与土木工程学院，辽宁沈阳110819; 2. 沈阳航空航天大学安全工程学院，辽宁沈阳110136)

修回日期:2020-05-25 接受日期:2020-05-25 发布日期:2021-04-15
通讯作者: 吴雅菊
作者简介:吴雅菊(1981-)，女，辽宁沈阳人，东北大学博士研究生；许开立(1965-)，男，山东郓城人，东北大学教授，博士生导师.
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0805100).

Safety Integrity Evaluation of High Temperature Molten Metal Operation

WU Ya-ju ^1,2， XU Kai-li¹， WANG Ruo-jun ¹， XU Xiao-hu¹

1. School of Resources & Civil Engineering， Northeastern University， Shenyang 110819， China; 2. School of Safety Engineering， Shenyang Aerospace University， Shenyang 110136， China.

Revised:2020-05-25 Accepted:2020-05-25 Published:2021-04-15
Contact: WU Ya-ju
About author:-
Supported by:
-

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了保证冶金行业高温熔融金属作业的安全性，将IEC 61508 标准提出的安全相关系统安全完整性的概念拓展到高温熔融金属作业系统，提出了基于贝叶斯网络Noisy-or模型的高温熔融金属作业安全完整性评价方法.建立了包括人的因素、物的因素、环境因素和管理因素的高温熔融金属作业安全完整性评价模型.贝叶斯网络各根节点的先验概率采用模糊理论的模糊数来确定.为了减少计算量及不确定性，利用Noisy-or模型确定条件概率，并考虑了各中间节点对作业安全完整性的协同影响作用.结果表明，评价模型因果推理可确定高温熔融金属作业的安全完整性等级，诊断推理也可确定其敏感因素，为制定安全措施提供指导意见.

关键词: 高温熔融金属作业;贝叶斯网络;模糊理论;Noisy-or模型;安全完整性

Abstract: In order to ensure the safety of high temperature molten metal operation in metallurgy industry， the concept of safety integrity of safety-related systems in IEC 61508 was extended to high temperature molten metal operation system， and a safety integrity evaluation method for high temperature molten metal operation based on Bayesian networks Noisy-or model was proposed. A safety integrity evaluation model for high temperature molten metal operations was established， which includes human factors， material factors， environmental factors and management factors. The prior probability of each root node of the Bayesian network was determined by the fuzzy number of fuzzy theory. In order to reduce the amount of calculation and uncertainty， the Noisy-or model was used to determine the conditional probability， and the synergistic effect of each intermediate node on the safety and integrity of the operation was considered. The results show that the evaluation model causal reasoning can determine the safety integrity level of high temperature molten metal operations， and diagnostic reasoning can also determine its sensitive factors， providing guidance for the formulation of safety measures.

Key words: high temperature molten metal operation; Bayesian network; fuzzy theory; Noisy-or model; safety integrity

中图分类号:

X913. 4

吴雅菊，许开立，王若菌，徐晓虎. 高温熔融金属作业安全完整性评价[J]. 东北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2021, 42(4): 576-581.

WU Ya-ju ， XU Kai-li， WANG Ruo-jun ， XU Xiao-hu. Safety Integrity Evaluation of High Temperature Molten Metal Operation[J]. Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science), 2021, 42(4): 576-581.

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高温熔融金属作业安全完整性评价

Safety Integrity Evaluation of High Temperature Molten Metal Operation

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