关键词: 碳排放, STIRPAT模型, GM(1,1)模型, carbon emissions, STIRPAT model, GM (1,1) model

Abstract: In this paper, first comprehensive analyzed the factors that influence Chinese carbon emissions used on STIRPAT model and predict China from 2012 to 2020 carbon emissions based of gray model GM (1,1). The results show that: the rate of urbanization, economic growth, industrial structure, energy prices, population, energy structure and foreign trade carbon emissions intensity has some role in promoting technological progress on carbon emissions has a strong inhibitory effect; which for China a large increase in carbon emissions factors affecting the population and industrial structure; utilize GM (1,1) prediction model can be drawn Chinese carbon emissions in 2020 will be 2011 of 222.54%. Therefore, it should be a rational view of China's carbon emissions, reduce carbon emissions to promote and achieve emission reduction targets, should accelerate the optimization of industrial structure and energy consumption structure, and actively develop the use of clean energy, accelerate the conversion of the energy-intensive export industries depend , vigorously popularize low-carbon development and propaganda work.