东北大学学报（自然科学版）

东北大学学报:自然科学版 ›› 2015, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (11): 1648-1652.DOI: 10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2015.11.028

• 资源与土木工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

生物质气化火灾爆炸事故复合型风险评价

闫放， 许开立， 姚锡文， 王犇   

  1. (东北大学 资源与土木工程学院， 辽宁 沈阳110819)
  • 收稿日期:2014-10-10 修回日期:2014-10-10 出版日期:2015-11-15 发布日期:2015-11-10
  • 通讯作者: 闫放
  • 作者简介:闫放(1989-)，男，湖南长沙人，东北大学博士研究生; 许开立(1965-)，男，山东郓城人，东北大学教授，博士生导师.
  • 基金资助:
    辽宁省自然科学基金资助项目(2013020137)； 农业部农村能源专项(2012-27).

Integrated Risk Assessment of Biomass Gasified Fire and Explosion Accidents

YAN Fang， XU Kai-li， YAO Xi-wen， WANG Ben   

  1. School of Resources & Civil Engineering， Northeastern University， Shenyang 110819， China.
  • Received:2014-10-10 Revised:2014-10-10 Online:2015-11-15 Published:2015-11-10
  • Contact: XU Kai-li
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摘要： 为降低生物质气化火灾爆炸事故发生的概率，提出了一种将贝叶斯网络与bow-tie法相结合的风险评价方法.通过建立火灾爆炸事故的故障树并转化成贝叶斯网络，然后计算各基本事件的重要度，进而找出系统中导致事故发生的薄弱环节.采用bow-tie对薄弱环节进行分析，提出相应的预防措施与控制措施，并计算了薄弱环节采取控制措施后事故发生概率降低的幅度.该方法可精确找出导致事故发生的最主要原因及有效预防控制措施，达到有效降低生物质气化火灾爆炸事故发生概率的目的.

关键词: 生物质气化, 故障树分析, 贝叶斯网络, bow-tie法, 火灾爆炸事故

Abstract: In order to reduce the occurrence of fire and explosion accidents ， a risk assessment approach integrating Bayesian network and bow-tie analysis was proposed. Firstly， the fault tree is established and transformed into Bayesian network. Then the weak points which might lead to accidents can be pinpointed by calculating the importance of each basic event. The bow-tie analysis is given on the weak points to work out the precautions and control measures， and the reduction of accident frequency is calculated after taking control measures for the weak points. The reasons for such accidents can be found accurately by this approach， which helps to take appropriate precautions and control measures so as to effectively reduce the occurrence of biomass gasified fire and explosion accidents.

Key words: biomass gasification, FTA(fault tree analysis), Bayesian network, bow-tie analysis, fire and explosion accident

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