人口年龄结构变化与经济增速、股市涨跌的动态关系基于脉冲响应分析的实证研究

doi:10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2015.04.005

东北大学学报（社会科学版） ›› 2015, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (4): 355-361.DOI: 10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2015.04.005

人口年龄结构变化与经济增速、股市涨跌的动态关系基于脉冲响应分析的实证研究

王桂虎

(中国社会科学院研究生院，北京102488)

收稿日期:2014-11-22 修回日期:2014-11-22 出版日期:2015-07-25 发布日期:2015-11-10
通讯作者: 王桂虎
作者简介:王桂虎(1983-)，男，河北吴桥人，中国社会科学院博士研究生，主要从事宏观经济和当代西方经济理论研究。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重大资助项目(12&ZD117);国家科技部973计划研究资助项目(2011CB933401)。

Dynamic Relationships Among Age Structure Change of Population， Economic Growth and Stock Market PriceAn Empirical Study Based on Impulse Response Analysis

WANG Gui-hu

(Graduate School， Chinese Academy of Social Sciences， Beijing 102488， China)

Received:2014-11-22 Revised:2014-11-22 Online:2015-07-25 Published:2015-11-10
Contact: -
About author:-
Supported by:
-

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近年来，中国人口老龄化的趋势非常明显。选取2000—2012年的月度数据，应用向量自回归模型考察了我国人口年龄结构、GDP增速及股市涨跌情况的动态关系。实证结果表明:GDP增速与股市涨跌间存在较密切的动态关系; 老年人口比重对GDP增速和股市涨跌的冲击最为显著，而且呈现出明显的负向关系;成年人口比重与GDP增速、股市涨跌均呈现明显的正向关系;GDP增速与股市涨跌在长期内对于三类人口结构的影响都不明显。

关键词: 人口年龄结构, GDP增速, 股市, 脉冲响应

Abstract: In the recent years， there has been an obvious trend of population aging in China. Based on the month data of 2000-2012， the vector auto-regression model was applied to examine the dynamic relationships among Chinas population age structure， GDP growth and stock market price. The empirical results showed that there exists a close dynamic relationship between GDP growth and stock market price; the proportion of the aged population has the most significant negative effect on GDP growth and stock market price; the proportion of the younger adults exerts a significant positive effect on GDP growth and stock market price; and GDP growth and stock market price do not have an obvious effect on the three types of population structure in the long run.

Key words: age structure of population, GDP growth rate, stock market, impulse response

中图分类号:

C92-05
F240

王桂虎. 人口年龄结构变化与经济增速、股市涨跌的动态关系基于脉冲响应分析的实证研究[J]. 东北大学学报（社会科学版）, 2015, 17(4): 355-361.

WANG Gui-hu. Dynamic Relationships Among Age Structure Change of Population， Economic Growth and Stock Market PriceAn Empirical Study Based on Impulse Response Analysis[J]. Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science), 2015, 17(4): 355-361.

参考文献

[1]Jaimovich N， Pruitt S，Siu H. The Demand for Youth: Implications for the Hours Volatility Puzzle［R］. Stanford: Stanford University， 2009.
[2]Lugauer S. Estimating the Effect of the Age Distribution on Cyclical Output Volatility Across the United States［J］. Review of Economics and Statistics， 2012，94(4):896-902.
[3]Haque N U， Pesaran M H ， Sharma S. Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-country Savings Regressions［R］. Cambridge: Cambridge University，1999.
[4]Nether P A. Peasants， Procreation and Pensions［J］. American Economic Review， 1971，61(6):380-389.
[5]Browning M， Lusardi A. Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts［J］. Journal of Economic Literature， 1996，34(4):1797-1855.
[6]Kohara M， Horioka C Y. Do Borrowing Constraints Matter?—An Analysis of Why the Permanent Income Hypothesis Does Not Apply in Japan［J］. Japan and the World Economy， 2006，18:358-377.
[7]Skans O N. How Does the Age Structure Affect Regional Productivity?［J］. Applied Economics Letters， 2008，10:787-790.
[8]袁志刚，宋铮. 人口年龄结构、养老保险制度和与最优储蓄率［J］. 经济研究， 2000(11):24-33.
[9]Horioka C Y， Wan J. The Determinantsof Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysisof Provincial Data［J］. Journal of Money， Credit and Banking， 2007，39:2077-2096.
[10]Bloom D E， Canning D， Fink G. Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth［J］. Oxford Review of Economic Policy， 2010，26(4):583-612.
[11]Erb C B， Harvey C R， Viskanta T E. Demographics and International Investment［J］. Financial Analysts Journal， 1997，53(7):14-28.
[12]Geanakoplos J， Michael M， Martine Q. Demography and the Long-run Predictability of the Stock Market［J］. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity， 2004，7:241-325.
[13]Brsch-Supan A. Global Aging: Issues， Answers， More Questions［R］. Munich: Germany MEA， 2004.
[14]Hamilton J D， Lin G. Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle［J］. Journal of Applied Econometrics， 1996，11:573-593.
[15]Flad M. Do Macro-factors Help Forecasting Stock Market Volatility?［J］. Finance and Monetary Economics， 2006，8:1-35.
[16]杨菊华，陈卫，彭希哲. 中国离极低生育率还有多远?［J］. 人口研究， 2008(5):31-39.

人口年龄结构变化与经济增速、股市涨跌的动态关系基于脉冲响应分析的实证研究

Dynamic Relationships Among Age Structure Change of Population， Economic Growth and Stock Market PriceAn Empirical Study Based on Impulse Response Analysis

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 2

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	林艳丽，孟校臣，王海涛. 辽宁省财政支农支出与农业经济增长关系的实证研究基于VAR模型的分析[J]. 东北大学学报（社会科学版）, 2014, 16(2): 152-157.
[2]	杨达;. 中国货币政策的产业非对称效应——基于门限向量自回归模型的实证研究[J]. 东北大学学报（社会科学版）, 2011, 32(5): 398-403.