Study on the Time Trend of the Income Redistribution Effect of Indirect Tax Incidence: Evaluation of Input-output Price Model Based on Tax Reduction and Fee Reduction Period

doi:10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2024.01.004

Abstract

Abstract: To ensure the improvement of fiscal policy effectiveness， it is necessary to accurately evaluate the distribution of beneficiaries and income distribution effects of indirect tax reform. Based on the micro data of CFPS from 2012 to 2020， an input-output tax price model is constructed to study the temporal trend of the income redistribution effect of indirect tax incidence. The results show that the expansion of value-added tax， the separation of tax items， and the reduction of general tax rates have significantly reduced the effective tax burden of indirect taxes on overall residents， especially low-income groups， and improved the level of social welfare. The K index of indirect tax and tax distribution is negative， and during the process of tax reduction and fee reduction， the structural adjustment of the tax system weakens its regressiveness. Indirect taxation has a reverse regulated income redistribution effect， but the overall effect of indirect taxation has improved from -5.45% to -2.27% at this stage， with improvements in horizontal fairness and vertical fairness. Based on this， suggestions are proposed to pay attention to the fairness of initial distribution， continue to implement tax deductions and refunds， and optimize indirect tax rates and tax items， etc. to leverage the advantages of the fiscal revenue system with indirect tax as the main body.

Key words: indirect tax incidence; income redistribution; input-output analysis; tax reduction and fee reduction; common prosperity

CLC Number:

YANG Zhian， FU Zhenggan. Study on the Time Trend of the Income Redistribution Effect of Indirect Tax Incidence: Evaluation of Input-output Price Model Based on Tax Reduction and Fee Reduction Period[J]. Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science), 2024, 26(1): 31-42.

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