An Empirical Research on the Relationship between Fiscal Expenditure on Agriculture and Agricultural Economic Growth—— the Analysis based on the VAR model

  

  • Received:2012-05-31 Published:2014-04-17

Abstract: As sample of Liaoning Province,by using 1978-2010 annual economic data,this paper tracks/explores the dynamic reponse of agriculture fiscal expenditure and the value added of the primary industry by means of the model of VAR and impulse response function,and confirms the lead and lag relationship in time between two variables through the Granger causality test. The findings indicate that there is a stable equilibrium relationship between them in the long run. Futhermore,the response of value added of the primary industry to one S.D. innovation of agriculture fiscal expenditure is always positive and the response value increases step by step with time. Otherwise,one S.D. positive innovation of the added value of primary industry promotes an increase in the fiscal expenditure and produces a strong cumulative effect in the long run. We see that there is only one-way causal relationship between them through Granger test.The agriculture fiscal expenditure can Granger cause the value added of the primary industry in short run,but the latter does not Granger cause the former.