论美国政府公共债务的可持续性基于ADL模型的实证研究

doi:10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2016.04.005

东北大学学报（社会科学版） ›› 2016, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 356-361.DOI: 10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2016.04.005

论美国政府公共债务的可持续性基于ADL模型的实证研究

秦卫波^1,2，王立荣¹，李成宇¹

(1.东北师范大学经济学院，吉林长春130117;2.东北师范大学学术期刊社，吉林长春130117)

收稿日期:2015-11-25 修回日期:2015-11-25 出版日期:2016-07-25 发布日期:2016-07-25
通讯作者: 秦卫波
作者简介:秦卫波(1982-)，男，河南温县人，东北师范大学博士研究生，副编审，主要从事国际金融理论研究;王立荣(1982-)，女，吉林东辽人，东北师范大学副教授，主要从事国际金融研究;李成宇(1987-)，男，山东潍坊人，东北师范大学博士研究生，主要从事区域经济政策研究。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重大资助项目(10&ZD054);国家社会科学基金青年资助项目(15CGJ020);教育部人文社会科学研究一般资助项目(11YJC790181);东北师范大学青年基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金)资助项目(XQ15033)。

Sustainability of US Government Public DebtAn Empirical Research Based on ADL Model

QIN Wei-bo^1,2， WANG Li-rong¹， LI Cheng-yu¹

(1. School of Economics， Northeast Normal University， Changchun 130117， China; 2. Press Office of Academic Periodical， Northeast Normal University， Changchun 130117， China)

Received:2015-11-25 Revised:2015-11-25 Online:2016-07-25 Published:2016-07-25
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摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着世界经济缓慢复苏，不断攀升的政府债务问题正困扰着美国、日本及欧洲多个国家，这其中美国政府债务问题尤为引人关注。以1959—2013年美国基本预算盈余/赤字、公共债务规模等相关数据为基础，构建了自回归分布滞后(ADL)模型，并对美国政府公共债务可持续性问题进行了分析，研究结果表明:政府预算赤字/盈余、公共债务规模、预期通货膨胀、经济波动指标等变量之间存在门限协整关系。美国政府预算充分考虑了债务规模的膨胀及经济周期等因素，这保障了公共债务呈现出向其均衡稳态回归的特征，不存在爆炸性增长的可能，保证了美国公共债务的可持续。

关键词: 美国政府债务, ADL模型, 门限协整

Abstract: Along with the gradual resuscitation of world economy， the rising government debt has become a major obstacle to such countries as USA， Japan， and many European countries， among which USA stands out. Based on the data of US primary budget surplus/deficit and its public debt scale from 1959 to 2013， the ADL model was built to analyze the sustainability of US government public debt. The results showed that there exists a threshold cointegrating relationship among such variables as government budget surplus/deficit， public debt scale， anticipated inflation， and business cycle indicators. The US government budget takes full consideration of such factors as debt scale inflation and economic cycle so as to make sure that the public debt takes on a balanced and steady returning and avoids possible explosive growth， thus guaranteeing the sustainability of US government public debt.

Key words: US government debt, advance decline line model, threshold cointegrating

中图分类号:

F811

秦卫波，王立荣，李成宇. 论美国政府公共债务的可持续性基于ADL模型的实证研究[J]. 东北大学学报（社会科学版）, 2016, 18(4): 356-361.

QIN Wei-bo， WANG Li-rong， LI Cheng-yu. Sustainability of US Government Public DebtAn Empirical Research Based on ADL Model[J]. Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science), 2016, 18(4): 356-361.

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论美国政府公共债务的可持续性基于ADL模型的实证研究

Sustainability of US Government Public DebtAn Empirical Research Based on ADL Model

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