东北大学学报（社会科学版）

东北大学学报（社会科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (4): 15-25.DOI: 10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2021.04.003

• 经济与管理研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

宏观审慎政策工具运用对我国货币政策有效性的影响

金春雨1,2，王薇2   

  1. (1.吉林大学数量经济研究中心，吉林长春130012;2.吉林大学商学院，吉林长春130012)
  • 发布日期:2021-07-30
  • 通讯作者: 金春雨
  • 作者简介:金春雨(1965-)，女，吉林梨树人，吉林大学教授，博士生导师，主要从事宏观经济及金融计量分析研究;王薇(1993-)，女，吉林松原人，吉林大学博士研究生，主要从事宏观经济及金融计量分析研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大资助项目(18VSJ018)。

The Impact of the Application of Macro-prudential Policy Tools on the Effectiveness of China's Monetary Policy

JIN Chunyu1,2， WANG Wei2   

  1. (1. Center for Quantitative Economy，Jilin University， Changchun 130012， China; 2. Business School，Jilin University， Changchun 130012， China)
  • Published:2021-07-30
  • Contact: -
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摘要： 基于多元方向分位数向量自回归模型(MDQVAR)实证检验了宏观审慎政策工具不同强度的运用对我国货币政策调控“经济增长、物价稳定、金融稳定”三大目标有效性的影响，并据此针对不同的经济调控目标提出了最优的货币政策与宏观审慎政策组合形式。研究发现:在具体政策配合过程中，应尽量根据经济发展不同时期的主要目标选择政策组合形式，在经济下行期下调法定存款准备金率或放宽资本流入与增加货币供给的配合能够尽快恢复实体经济增长;在经济平稳期调节贷款价值比与增加货币供应量能够尽可能实现经济的平稳增长，而且避免了通货膨胀损失;在经济过热期上调法定存款准备金率与利率可以快速降低通货膨胀率、稳定物价。

关键词: 货币政策有效性; 宏观审慎政策; 政策协调; MDQVAR模型

Abstract: This paper empirically tests the impact of the application of macroeconomic prudential policy tools of different intensities on the effectiveness of China's monetary policy regulating “economic growth， price stability， and financial stability” based on the MDQVAR model， and proposes the optimal combination of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy for different economic control objectives accordingly. It is found in the study that in the process of specific policy coordination， the policy combination form should be selected according to the main objectives of different periods of economic development as much as possible. Lowering the statutory deposit reserve ratio or relaxing capital inflows with the increase in the supply of money during the economic downturn can restore real economic growth as soon as possible. Adjusting the loan-to-value ratio and increasing money supply during the stable period of the economy can achieve steady economic growth， and avoid the loss from inflation. Raising the statutory deposit reserve ratio and interest rate during the economic overheating period can quickly reduce the inflation rate and stabilize prices.

Key words: effectiveness of monetary policy; macro-prudential policy; policy coordination; multivariate directional quantile vector autoregressive

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