东北大学学报（社会科学版）

东北大学学报（社会科学版） ›› 2015, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (3): 252-259.DOI: 10.15936/j.cnki.10083758.2015.03.006

• 经济与管理研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

人口、经济因素对中国人口老龄化的影响基于省际面板数据的经验分析

孔令文1，陈珍珍2   

  1. (1.华中科技大学经济学院，湖北武汉430074;2.中南财经政法大学经济学院，湖北武汉430073)
  • 收稿日期:2015-06-12 修回日期:2015-06-12 出版日期:2015-05-25 发布日期:2015-06-12
  • 通讯作者: 孔令文
  • 作者简介:孔令文(1988)，男，江西萍乡人，华中科技大学博士研究生，主要从事宏观经济学研究;陈珍珍(1990)，女，湖北咸宁人，中南财经政法大学硕士研究生，主要从事宏观经济学研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(71473275);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(CET100830)。

Effects of Demographic and Economic Factors on Chinas Population AgingAn Empirical Analysis Based on the Provincial Panel Data

KONG Ling-wen1， CHEN Zhen-zhen2   

  1. (1. School of Economics， Huazhong University of Science and Technology， Wuhan 430074， China; 2. School of Economics， Zhongnan University of Economics and Law， Wuhan 430073， China)
  • Received:2015-06-12 Revised:2015-06-12 Online:2015-05-25 Published:2015-06-12
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摘要： 利用1997—2011年我国省际面板数据实证分析了人口、经济因素对我国人口老龄化的影响。研究结果表明:从全国层面来看，死亡率、教育投资、人均收入水平、非农产业发展和非农化水平等因素对人口老龄化存在较显著的正向效应;出生率对人口老龄化存在负向效应。从区域层面看，死亡率、教育投资、非农产业发展和非农化水平在东中西部三个地区对人口老龄化的影响均为正向效应;出生率在三个地区对人口老龄化均有负向影响;健康投资在东部和西部地区有负向效应;非农产业发展效应在东部地区的效应也为负。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 人口因素, 经济因素

Abstract: Based on Chinas provincial panel data between 1997 and 2011， this paper explored the effects of demographic and economic factors on Chinas population aging. The results showed that from the national perspective， birth rate has a negative effect on population aging while there are quite a few factors that have positive effects on population aging such as mortality rate， investment in education， average income level， the development of non-agricultural industries and the non-agriculturalization level. However， from the regional perspective， the effect of birth rate in the eastern， middle and western regions is negative; the impact of mortality rate， investment in education， the development of non-agricultural industry and the non-agriculturalization level in the three regions are all positive while health investment has a negative effect in the eastern and western regions and the development of non-agricultural industries has a negative effect in the eastern region.

Key words: population aging, demographic factor, economic factor

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