Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science) ›› 2013, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (2): 134-139.DOI: -

• Economics and Management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Does China Experience Imported Inflation?From the Perspective of Exchange Rate Passthrough

WANG Sheng, TIAN Tao   

  1. (Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China)
  • Received:2012-07-01 Revised:2012-07-01 Online:2013-03-25 Published:2014-12-18
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Abstract: Based on the mathematical model of exchange rate passthrough, this paper first analyzes the effect of inflationary environment on exchange rate passthrough. It then applies the smooth transition regression model to give an empirical analysis and the results are as follows: Firstly, the exchange rate passthrough is lower if the inflationary environment is lower and the exchange rate passthrough is higher if the inflationary environment is higher. Secondly, the exchange rate passthrough varies smoothly with the changes of the inflationary environment and the elastic nonlinear threshold value of RMB exchange rate passthrough on imported prices is 0.00197 (the threeperiod moving average). Finally, the current average of monthly inflation is generally beyond the critical value and the imported price level of the exchange rate passthrough is high. Therefore, the government should pay more attention to the increasing imported price level caused by the higher exchange rate passthrough.

Key words: imported inflation, exchange rate passthrough, STR model

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