Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science) ›› 2016, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 356-361.DOI: 10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2016.04.005

• Economics and Management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Sustainability of US Government Public DebtAn Empirical Research Based on ADL Model

QIN Wei-bo1,2, WANG Li-rong1, LI Cheng-yu1   

  1. (1. School of Economics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, China; 2. Press Office of Academic Periodical, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, China)
  • Received:2015-11-25 Revised:2015-11-25 Online:2016-07-25 Published:2016-07-25
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Abstract: Along with the gradual resuscitation of world economy, the rising government debt has become a major obstacle to such countries as USA, Japan, and many European countries, among which USA stands out. Based on the data of US primary budget surplus/deficit and its public debt scale from 1959 to 2013, the ADL model was built to analyze the sustainability of US government public debt. The results showed that there exists a threshold cointegrating relationship among such variables as government budget surplus/deficit, public debt scale, anticipated inflation, and business cycle indicators. The US government budget takes full consideration of such factors as debt scale inflation and economic cycle so as to make sure that the public debt takes on a balanced and steady returning and avoids possible explosive growth, thus guaranteeing the sustainability of US government public debt.

Key words: US government debt, advance decline line model, threshold cointegrating

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