Life Expectancy and Savings Rate: Based on the Ramsey Model of Limited Life

doi:10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2022.05.004

Abstract

Abstract: Based on mathematical deduction， it is found that there is a reciprocal relationship between life expectancy and mortality. By adopting the Ramsey model of limited life， it is deduced that there is a positive correlation between life expectancy and savings rate. In order to verify this conclusion， a panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017 were used for benchmark estimation. After using the dynamic panel instrumental variable method to overcome the endogenous problem， and adopting such robustness tests as gradually increasing the number of control variables and replacing the explained variables， the results still support the conclusion of the theoretical analysis. The policy implication of this conclusion is: appropriately extend the retirement years of the elderly， establish a sound pension security system， and reduce the elderly's preventive savings motivation to stimulate consumption.

Key words: life expectancy; savings rate; Ramsey model; fixed effect; dynamic panel

CLC Number:

LIU Pengfei. Life Expectancy and Savings Rate: Based on the Ramsey Model of Limited Life[J]. Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science), 2022, 24(5): 22-30.

References

[1]冯明. 农民工与中国高储蓄率之谜——基于搜寻匹配模型的分析［J］. 管理世界， 2017(4):20-31.
[2]尹志超，刘泰星，张诚. 农村劳动力流动对家庭储蓄率的影响［J］. 中国工业经济， 2020(1):24-42.
[3]Yaari M E. Uncertain Lifetime，Life Insurance，and the Theory of the Consumer［J］. The Review of Economic Studies， 1965，32(2):137-150.
[4]Chakraborty S. Endogenous Lifetime and Economic Growth［J］. Journal of Economic Theory， 2004，116(2):119-137.
[5]Hansen C W，Lnstrup L. Can Higher Life Expectancy Induce More Schooling and Earlier Retirement?［J］. Journal of Population Economics， 2012，25(4):1249-1264.
[6]Futagami K，Nakajima T. Population Aging and Economic Growth［J］. Journal of Macroeconomics， 2001，23(1):31-44.
[7]蔡兴. 预期寿命、养老保险发展与中国居民消费［J］. 经济评论， 2015(6):81-91.
[8]王树，吕昭河. “人口红利”与“储蓄之谜”——基于省级面板数据的实证分析［J］. 人口与发展， 2019(2):64-75.
[9]李斌，吴书胜. 人口年龄结构、预期寿命与居民消费率——基于省际动态面板系统GMM的检验［J］. 中南大学学报(社会科学版)， 2015，21(2):109-117.
[10]金刚，柳清瑞，张秋秋. 分段预期寿命对国民储蓄率的影响效应［J］. 中国人口科学， 2015(3):69-78.
[11]Zhang J，Zhang J S. The Effect of Life Expectancy on Fertility， Saving， Schooling and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence［J］. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics， 2005，107(1):45-66.
[12]Kinugasa T，Mason A. Why Countries Become Wealthy: the Effects of Adult Longevity on Saving［J］. World Development， 2007，35(1):1-23.
[13]杨继军，张二震. 人口年龄结构、养老保险制度转轨对居民储蓄率的影响［J］. 中国社会科学， 2013(8):47-66.
[14]汪伟，艾春荣. 人口老龄化与中国储蓄率的动态演化［J］. 管理世界， 2015(6):47-62.
[15]汪伟. 人口老龄化，生育政策调整与中国经济增长［J］. 经济学(季刊)， 2017(1):67-96.
[16]傅程远，陈蕾. 人口因素对居民储蓄率的影响研究［J］. 经济经纬， 2019(3):147-152.
[17]孟令国，王清，胡广. 二次人口红利视角下国民储蓄率影响因素分析［J］. 经济科学， 2013(5):9-18.
[18]刘生龙，胡鞍钢，郎晓娟. 预期寿命与中国家庭储蓄［J］. 经济研究， 2012，47(8):107-117.
[19]王树，吕昭河. 预期寿命，人口红利与居民储蓄［J］. 南京审计大学学报， 2019(2):80-89.
[20]Park D，Rhee C. Saving， Growth and Demographic Change in Korea［J］. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies， 2005，19(3):394-413.
[21]李猛. 预期寿命延长对储蓄率的影响研究［J］. 中国人口科学， 2020(1):29-40.
[22]章元，王驹飞，沈可. 预期寿命延长与农村居民储蓄率——基于CHIP 2013农户样本的研究［J］. 学术研究， 2019(7):64-70.
[23]章元，王驹飞. 预期寿命延长与中国城镇居民的高储蓄率——来自地级市城镇家庭的证据［J］. 中国人口科学， 2019(2):16-26.
[24]尹豪. 人口学概论［M］. 北京: 中国人口出版社， 2006:144-146.
[25]邱红，李晶华，于丽莎，等. 人口平均预期寿命及疾病影响因素分析［J］. 人口学刊， 2018，40(6):31-39.
[26]张颖熙，夏杰长. 健康预期寿命提高如何促进经济增长?——基于跨国宏观数据的实证研究［J］. 管理世界， 2020(10):41-53.
[27]Blanchard O J. Debt， Deficits， and Finite Horizons［J］. Journal of Political Economy， 1985，93(2):223-247.
[28]Blanchard O J，Fischer S. Lectures on Macroeconomics［M］. Cambridge: MIT Press， 1989.
[29]范叙春，朱保华. 预期寿命增长、年龄结构改变与中国国民储蓄率［J］. 人口研究， 2012(4):18-28.
[30]张志远，张铭洪. 法定退休制下受教育年限、预期寿命与储蓄率的关系——兼论延迟退休对居民储蓄率的影响［J］. 当代财经， 2016(12):44-54.［31］孙慧文，任太增. 提升劳动收入份额的产业路径研究［J］. 江汉论坛， 2018(5):34-38.［32］赵昕东，王昊，刘婷. 人口老龄化、养老保险与居民储蓄率［J］. 中国软科学， 2017(8):156-165.［33］张军，吴桂英，张吉鹏. 中国省际物质资本存量估算: 1952—2000［J］. 经济研究， 2004(10):35-44.［34］Deaton A S，Paxson C H. Saving，Growth and Aging in Taiwan［M］∥Studies in the Economics of Aging. Chicago: University of Chicago Press， 1994:331-362.［35］Chamon M D，Prasad E S. Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising［J］. American Economic Journal Macroeconomics， 2010，2(1):93-130.