Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science) ›› 2023, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (1): 14-24.DOI: 10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2023.01.003

• Economics and Management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

The Impact and Mechanism of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Economic Resilience

LYU Yiqing, LIU Jingjing   

  1. (1. School of Economics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China; 2. School of International Trade and Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102206, China)
  • Published:2023-01-30
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Abstract: Based on the general environment of increasing uncertainty in global economic development and frequent intervention of governments in economic activities, the economic fitness index and economic policy uncertainty index of 23 countries from 2000 to 2019 are used to conduct an empirical study from the international level on how economic policy uncertainty affects a country's economic resilience and its path of action. The results show that economic policy uncertainty has a nonlinear effect on a country's economic adaptability, i.e. economic resilience, that is, the threshold effect. Economic policy uncertainty has a positive effect on a country's economic resilience, while excessive economic policy uncertainty will damage a country's economic resilience. Through the analysis of intermediary effect, it is found that economic policy uncertainty can promote the improvement of a country's economic resilience through the optimization of industrial structure and the efficiency of enterprise innovation. Further heterogeneity analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty has a positive effect on the improvement of economic resilience in developing countries, but a negative effect on developed countries.

Key words: economic policy uncertainty; economic resilience; industrial structure; enterprise innovation

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