状态空间下列车区段晚点预测误差控制

doi:10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2021.04.006

东北大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 494-501.DOI: 10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2021.04.006

状态空间下列车区段晚点预测误差控制

张路凯，冯雪松

(北京交通大学交通运输学院，北京100044)

修回日期:2020-10-27 接受日期:2020-10-27 发布日期:2021-04-15
通讯作者: 张路凯
作者简介:张路凯(1988-)，男，山东济宁人，北京交通大学博士研究生；冯雪松(1979-)，男，吉林省吉林市人，北京交通大学教授，博士生导师.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71571011).

Error Control of Delay Prediction in Railway Sections Under State Space

ZHANG Lu-kai， FENG Xue-song

School of Traffic and Transportation， Beijing Jiaotong University， Beijing 100044， China.

Revised:2020-10-27 Accepted:2020-10-27 Published:2021-04-15
Contact: FENG Xue-song
About author:-
Supported by:
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摘要/Abstract

摘要： 考虑区段间信息级联效应，提出一种状态空间下的列车晚点预测误差控制分析架构.应用拟合回归方法处理运行统计数据以确定常微分方程组，根据现代控制理论设计一种减小误差的线性二次调节器，并通过推导论证为所提方法提供合理性支撑.设计了双温模拟退火算法以获取调节器的优化参数，并结合SIMULINK环境实现仿真计算.结果表明，相较于传统贝叶斯网络预测方法，所提出的状态空间分析方法对各项误差性能指标具有不同程度的改善，且在平均误差值、数据需求量和运算时间等计算指标上具有优势.

关键词: 交通信息工程及控制;运行区段;晚点预测;误差控制;参数优化;双温模拟退火算法

Abstract: Considering the cascading effect of information between sections， an analysis framework of train delay prediction error control in state space was proposed. The fitting regression method was used to process the operating statistics to determine the ordinary differential equations. According to the modern control theory， a linear quadratic regulator was designed to reduce the error， and it provides reasonable support for the proposed method through deduction. The dual-temperature simulated annealing algorithm was designed to obtain the optimized parameters of the regulator， and the simulation calculation was realized in combination with the SIMULINK environment. Numerical experiment results show that compared with the traditional Bayesian network prediction method， the proposed state space analysis method has different degrees of improvement on various error performance indicators， it has obvious advantages in calculation indicators such as average error value， data demand and computing time.

Key words: transportation information engineering and control; operating section; delay prediction; error control; parameter optimization; dual-temperature simulated annealing algorithm

中图分类号:

TP14

张路凯，冯雪松. 状态空间下列车区段晚点预测误差控制[J]. 东北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2021, 42(4): 494-501.

ZHANG Lu-kai， FENG Xue-song. Error Control of Delay Prediction in Railway Sections Under State Space[J]. Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science), 2021, 42(4): 494-501.

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状态空间下列车区段晚点预测误差控制

Error Control of Delay Prediction in Railway Sections Under State Space

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