关键词: 潍北平原；地面沉降；地下水开采；数值模型；演化趋势

Abstract: Aiming at the problem of land subsidence in Weibei Plain， a three-dimensional numerical model of fluid-solid coupling for Weibei Plain land subsidence was established. The development law of Weibei Plain land subsidence in the future was discussed from a macro perspective， and the negative impact of groundwater exploitation on the ground subsidence was quantified by taking into account the mutual relationship between groundwater exploitation and land subsidence. The results show that the subsidence funnel center is mainly distributed in the east of Yingli Town and the north of Guangling Township. If the amount of groundwater exploitation in 2019 is maintained， the subsidence of Weibei Plain will continue to develop and increase in the next 10 years， and the maximum cumulative land subsidence will be as high as 565.42 mm in 2029， with an average annual growth rate of 38.97 mm/a， and the subsidence center will remain unchanged. With the decrease of groundwater exploitation， the development degree of land subsidence can be alleviated obviously， and will continue to decrease， causing the mitigation trend of land subsidence. When the reduction is controlled between 10% and 30%， the mitigation effect of land subsidence disaster could be better.

Key words: Weibei Plain； land subsidence； groundwater exploitation； numerical model； evolution trend