东北大学学报（自然科学版）

东北大学学报:自然科学版 ›› 2016, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (12): 1800-1804.DOI: 10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2016.12.027

• 资源与土木工程 • 上一篇    

基于相对差异函数和博弈论的泥石流敏感性分析

阮云凯1， 陈剑平1， 史明远1， 李严严2   

  1. (1. 吉林大学 建设工程学院， 吉林 长春130026； 2. 中国科学院 地质与地球物理研究所， 北京100029)
  • 收稿日期:2015-10-30 修回日期:2015-10-30 出版日期:2016-12-15 发布日期:2016-12-23
  • 通讯作者: 阮云凯
  • 作者简介:阮云凯(1989-)，男，福建建阳人，吉林大学博士研究生; 陈剑平(1957-)，男，福建南平人，吉林大学教授，博士生导师.
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(41330636)； 吉林大学研究生创新基金资助项目(2016208).

Debris Flow Susceptibility Analysis Based on Relative Difference Function and Game Theory

RUAN Yun-kai1， CHEN Jian-ping1， SHI Ming-yuan1， LI Yan-yan2   

  1. 1. College of Construction Engineering， Jilin University， Changchun 130026， China; 2. Institute of Geology and Geophysics， Chinese Academy of Sciences， Beijing 100029， China.
  • Received:2015-10-30 Revised:2015-10-30 Online:2016-12-15 Published:2016-12-23
  • Contact: RUAN Yun-kai
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摘要： 引入可变模糊理论中的相对差异函数，建立泥石流敏感性分析模型.选取内蒙古赤峰抽水蓄能电站下库区11条泥石流沟，确定7个主要影响因子即单位面积物源量、泥砂补给段长度比、主沟平均比降、山坡平均坡度、流域切割密度、主沟床弯曲系数和植被贫瘠率.利用优序图法确定因子的主观权重，熵值法确定客观权重，由博弈论确定各个影响因子的组合权重分别为0.19，0.14，0.19，0.10，0.09，0.18，0.11.计算分析得出，该库区11条泥石流的敏感性有6条为轻度敏感，5条为中度敏感.将评价结果与现场实际调查情况对比分析可知，11条泥石流沟的敏感度水平与泥石流实际发育情况相符，证明该方法的可行性.

关键词: 泥石流, 组合赋权, 敏感性, 相对差异函数, 评价模型

Abstract: A relative different function of the variable fuzzy theory was introduced to the building of a sensitivity analysis model for debris flow. 11 debris flow catchments located in Chifeng pumped storage power station in Inner Mongolia were investigated. Seven major factors， namely， loose material volume per square kilometer， loose material supply length ratio， average gradient of the main channel， average hill slope， drainage density， curvature of the main channel， and poor vegetation area ratio， were selected for debris flow susceptibility analysis. Precedence chart was used for objective weighting and entropy method was used for subjective weighting. Combination weighting was calculated by game theory. Combination weights of major factors for the investigated 11 debris flow catchments are 0.19， 0.14， 0.19， 0.10， 0.09， 0.18 and 0.11， respectively. Susceptibility results show that the susceptibility of 6 debris flow catchments are very low and 5 are low. Comparing the susceptibility results with field observations， 11 debris flow catchments agrees very well with real status of debris flow， proved the feasibility of this method.

Key words: debris flow, combination weighting, susceptibility, relative different function, assessment model

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