关键词: 可靠性, 多状态系统, 贝叶斯信念网, 离散化, 建模

Abstract: It was found that there is a discrepancy between theory and practical effect when applying the conventional reliability assessment based on binary logic to the multi-state mechanical systems, especially the result of its application is unsatisfactory. A new discretized modeling process is therefore proposed on BBN (Bayesian belief networks) basis for the reliability of multi-state mechanical systems, since BBN is featured with bidirectional reasoning function for uncertainty and graphic display. The discretized BBN model is developed the way the nodes in BBN and the multi-states of all components in discrete system should be determined to give the probability of each and every state, then the CPD (conditional probability distributing) is used to describe the relationships between different states so as to express the states of relevant nodes. In the model the complex computation due to various equations in earlier works can be avoided with the number of components unlimited. An example is given and the analyzing results show the effectiveness and favorableness of the discretized BBN model if using it to assess the reliability of a multi-state mechanical system.