东北大学学报（自然科学版）

东北大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2008, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (3): 416-419.DOI: -

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

系统动态安全评价研究

周家红;许开立;陈志勇;   

  1. 东北大学资源与土木工程学院;东北大学资源与土木工程学院;辽东学院信息技术学院 辽宁 沈阳 110004;辽宁 沈阳 110004;辽宁 丹东 118001
  • 收稿日期:2013-06-22 修回日期:2013-06-22 出版日期:2008-03-15 发布日期:2013-06-22
  • 通讯作者: Zhou, J.-H.
  • 作者简介:-
  • 基金资助:
    国家“十一五”科技支撑计划项目(2006BAK04B01)．

On the dynamic assessment of system safety

Zhou, Jia-Hong (1); Xu, Kai-Li (1); Chen, Zhi-Yong (2)   

  1. (1) School of Resources and Civil Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, China; (2) Faculty of Information Technology, Eastern Liaoning University, Dandong 118001, China
  • Received:2013-06-22 Revised:2013-06-22 Online:2008-03-15 Published:2013-06-22
  • Contact: Zhou, J.-H.
  • About author:-
  • Supported by:
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摘要： 针对系统中诸多不确定性因素和系统的动态特征进行分析,将SPA和Markov链用于系统的动态安全评价,并进行了深入研究.提出了一种集状态评价和趋势分析于一体的系统动态安全评价的方法,为安全评价提供一条新的途径,并通过实例验证了其可行性.利用SPA中的联系数确定系统的危险等级,建立了将系统的安全状态变量、集对势的趋势变量、悲观势的趋势变量相结合的三元组趋势分析模型,剖析了系统的发展趋势,动态评价系统的安全状况;根据Markov链的遍历性,预测系统最终的安全水平,为管理者进行安全决策提供了理论依据.

关键词: 动态安全评价, 集对分析, 马尔可夫链, 集对势, 悲观势

Abstract: Analyzing the uncertain factors and dynamic characteristics of a system, the system safety is dynamically assessed via SPA and Markov chain. A dynamic safety assessment method is proposed combining the state assessment with trend analysis, thus providing a new approach for safety assessment and verifying its feasibility by examplification. In the method the hazard grade is determined by the correlation coefficient of SPA, and a 3-variable model combining the safety state with set pair potential and pessimistic potential is developed to analyze further the development trend of the system and assess dynamically the current situation of system safety. According to the ergodicity of Markov chain, the final level of system safety can be predicted to provide a theoretic reference for decision-making in safety consideration.

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