关键词: 共因失效, 系统可靠性, 相关失效, 可靠度, 可靠性模型, 多重失效

Abstract: Starting from the happening mechanism of common cause failures, a new common cause failure model was developed by using conditional probability. According to the reliability expression of some specific components, the probability that some specific m components were all good was obtained. The model can be used easily and approximates further to the real system. It makes up for the insufficiences of traditional common cause failure models, thus avoiding the NP problem. Several typical systems are given to exemplify how to use the new model, with the calculated results compared to those resulting from β-factor model. The results show that it is highly consistent with qualitative analysis, and the model's correctiveness is thus proved.