多状态多阶段任务系统的可靠度理论计算方法

doi:10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2022.05.012

东北大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2022, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (5): 689-695.DOI: 10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2022.05.012

多状态多阶段任务系统的可靠度理论计算方法

孙尧¹，孙志礼¹，周杰²，王健¹

(1. 东北大学机械工程与自动化学院，辽宁沈阳110819; 2. 中山大学生物医学工程学院，广东广州510275)

修回日期:2021-08-19 接受日期:2021-08-19 发布日期:2022-06-20
通讯作者: 孙尧
作者简介:孙尧(1993-)，女，辽宁鞍山人，东北大学博士研究生；孙志礼(1957-)，男，山东巨野人，东北大学教授，博士生导师.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51775097).

Theoretical Calculation Method of Reliability for Multi-state Phased-Mission Systems

SUN Yao¹， SUN Zhi-li¹， ZHOU Jie²， WANG Jian¹

1. School of Mechanical Engineering & Automation， Northeastern University， Shenyang 110819， China; 2. School of Biomedical Engineering， Sun Yat-sen University， Guangzhou 510275， China.

Revised:2021-08-19 Accepted:2021-08-19 Published:2022-06-20
Contact: SUN Zhi-li
About author:-
Supported by:
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摘要/Abstract

摘要： 多状态多阶段任务系统常见于关键性系统，其可靠性要求较高而其可靠度计算又相对困难.为实现该类系统可靠度的精准预测，研究了部件劣化符合马尔科夫过程的多状态多阶段任务系统的可靠度理论计算方法.首先，基于工作效率与需求的关系对该类系统可靠度进行了界定.其次，依据条件概率理论，建立了多阶段任务系统任务成功完成的概率公式.基于此，根据部件劣化的马尔科夫性及部件状态的跨阶段依赖性，推导了多状态多阶段任务系统的可靠度理论计算方法，并提出一种快速穷举部件状态组合的方法用于提高该计算方法的计算效率.最后，通过与蒙特卡罗模拟方法对比，验证了推导的可靠度理论计算方法的准确性与计算的有效性.

关键词: 马尔科夫过程;多状态多阶段任务系统;条件概率;系统可靠度;蒙特卡罗模拟

Abstract: Multi-state phased-mission systems(MS-PMSs)are often used in critical systems and require high reliability. However， their reliability calculation is relatively difficult. In order to make an accurate prediction of reliability for such systems， the theoretical calculation method of reliability for MS-PMSs with component degradation conforming to Markov process is studied. First， the reliability for such systems is defined based on the relationship between working efficiency and demand. Then， according to the conditional probabilistic theory， the probability of mission success is formulated. On the basis， according to the Markov property of component degradation and the dependence on component states among phases， the theoretical calculation method of reliability for MS-PMSs is derived， and a fast exhaustion method of component state combination is proposed to improve the computational efficiency of the calculation method. Finally， by comparing with the Monte-Carlo simulation method， the accuracy and computational effectiveness of the derived theoretical calculation method are verified.

Key words: Markov process; multi-state phased-mission system(MS-PMS); conditional probability; system reliability; Monte-Carlo simulation

中图分类号:

TB114.3

孙尧，孙志礼，周杰，王健. 多状态多阶段任务系统的可靠度理论计算方法[J]. 东北大学学报（自然科学版）, 2022, 43(5): 689-695.

SUN Yao， SUN Zhi-li， ZHOU Jie， WANG Jian. Theoretical Calculation Method of Reliability for Multi-state Phased-Mission Systems[J]. Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science), 2022, 43(5): 689-695.

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多状态多阶段任务系统的可靠度理论计算方法

Theoretical Calculation Method of Reliability for Multi-state Phased-Mission Systems

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