Journal of Northeastern University ›› 2008, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 601-604.DOI: -

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Application of GARCH-EVT model in dynamic VaR

Gao, Ying (1); Zhou, Xin (1); Jin, Xiu (1)   

  1. (1) School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, China
  • Received:2013-06-22 Revised:2013-06-22 Online:2008-04-15 Published:2013-06-22
  • Contact: Gao, Y.
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Abstract: Considering both the characteristics of clustering volatility and fat-tail of the data distribution of returns on financial assets especially the impact of conditional heteroscedaticity on the estimate of dynamic VAR, a GARCH-EVT model is developed by EVT (extreme value theory) to calculate the dynamic VAR(value at risk) of SSCI (Shanghai stock comprehensive index), then the model is compared with the GARCH-NORMAL model. The empirical analysis and posterior test results reveal that the GARCH-EVT model is superior to the GARCH-NORMAL model, because the former can solve better the problems of clustering volatility and fat-tail phenomenon. So it provides the managers and investors with quantitatively useful means for risk control.

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