Abstract: The factors that determine the bankrupt risk can be represented both qualitatively and quantitatively. To effectively recognize, measure and control bankrupt risk, an approach is suggested combining qualitative recognition with quantitative calculation based on modeling. A method based on parameter distribution and fuzzy recognition is adopted to classify bankrupt risk. In addition, a probability inference for bankrupt, a probability model to measure bankrupt risk and a probability distribution function of businesses lifetime are given. Focusing on business assets and based on the pricing theory of financial options, the model of bankrupt probability is developed. Finally, a planning model to control bankrupt risk is given.