东北大学学报（社会科学版）

东北大学学报（社会科学版） ›› 2023, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (4): 15-25.DOI: 10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2023.04.003

• 经济与管理研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

经济周期不同阶段财政支出结构优化研究——基于财政支出结构对经济增长的动态效应

金春雨1,2，徐悦悦2   

  1. (1.吉林大学数量经济研究中心，吉林长春130012;2.吉林大学商学与管理学院，吉林长春130012)
  • 发布日期:2023-08-15
  • 通讯作者: 金春雨
  • 作者简介:金春雨(1965-)，女，吉林梨树人，吉林大学教授，博士生导师，主要从事宏观经济与金融计量研究;徐悦悦(1993-)，女，河南周口人，吉林大学博士研究生，主要从事宏观经济研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(22AJL016)。

Research on the Optimization of Fiscal Expenditure Structure in Different Stages of the Economic Cycle: Based on the Dynamic Effect of Fiscal Expenditure Structure on Economic Growth

JIN Chunyu1,2， XU Yueyue2   

  1. (1. Center for Quantitative Economics， Jilin University， Changchun 130012， China; 2. School of Business and Management， Jilin University， Changchun 130012， China)
  • Published:2023-08-15
  • Contact: -
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摘要： 在扩展的内生经济增长模型框架下，利用SV-TVP-FAVAR模型分析了经济周期不同阶段财政支出结构的优化调整方向。研究结果表明，在经济衰退时期，当引发原因为金融危机时，提高经济建设支出和卫生支出比重的结构优化方向更有效地促进经济恢复，而当引发原因为新冠疫情时，提高卫生支出和文教支出的比重更有效;在经济恢复时期，提高文教支出和卫生支出比重的结构优化方向对经济增长调控更有效;在经济平稳时期，提高经济建设支出和文教支出比重的结构优化方向对经济增长调控更有效。

关键词: 财政支出结构; 经济增长; SV-TVP-FAVAR模型

Abstract: Under the framework of the extended endogenous economic growth model， this paper uses SV-TVP-FAVAR model to analyze the optimization and adjustment direction of fiscal expenditure structure in different stages of the economic cycle. The results show that during the recession caused by the economic crisis， the structural optimization direction of increasing the proportion of economic construction expenditure and health expenditure is more effective in promoting economic recovery. However， when the cause is the COVID-19 Pandemic， it is more effective to increase the proportion of health expenditure， cultural expenditure and educational expenditure. In the period of economic recovery， the structural optimization direction of increasing the proportion of cultural and educational expenditure and health expenditure is more effective in regulating economic growth. In the period of economic stability， the structural optimization direction of increasing the proportion of economic construction expenditure and cultural and educational expenditure is more effective in regulating economic growth.

Key words: fiscal expenditure structure; economic growth; SV-TVP-FAVAR model

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