Abstract:

Many studies have identified a positive correlation between the scale of postgraduate education and regional economic growth； however， the causal relationship remains unclear. Based on the provincial panel data from China， an instrumental variable approach is employed to empirically examine the causal effect of postgraduate education on regional economic growth. The main findings are as follows： Overall， after controlling for basic education， undergraduate and junior college education， physical capital investment， human capital investment， and the degree of openness， the scale of postgraduate education is found to significantly promote economic growth. This result remains robust after addressing endogeneity， confirming that the expansion of postgraduate education is a cause rather than a consequence of economic growth. Regionally， the expansion of postgraduate education significantly boosts economic growth across eastern， central， and western China， with the magnitude of the effect decreasing in the order of eastern， western， and central regions. In terms of economic zones， postgraduate education positively contributes to economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta， the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area， and the Bohai Rim， with the strongest effect observed in the Yangtze River Delta， followed by the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Bohai Rim. Moreover， the positive impact of postgraduate education on economic growth is moderated by talent mobility and industrial structure. Specifically， industrial structure upgrading explains regional differences across geographic areas， while industrial rationalization accounts for differences among strategic economic zones. Additionally， both the scale of postgraduate education and the proportion of employed postgraduates jointly influence economic growth， underscoring the importance of effective employment of highly educated talents.

Key words: scale of postgraduate education, economic growth, talent mobility, industrial structure