东北大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2019, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (6): 583-591.DOI: 10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2019.06.005

• 经济与管理研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

“多目标”下数量型与价格型货币政策工具的有效性对比研究——基于“多指标”的量化分析视角

刘金全,张龙   

  1. (吉林大学商学院,吉林长春130012)
  • 收稿日期:2019-04-17 修回日期:2019-04-17 出版日期:2019-11-25 发布日期:2019-11-26
  • 通讯作者: 刘金全
  • 作者简介:刘金全(1964-),男,黑龙江密山人,吉林大学教授,博士生导师,主要从事经济周期和货币政策研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(19AJY005)。

A Comparative Study on Effectiveness of Quantitative and Price-based Monetary Policy Tools Under “Multi-targets”——From the Perspective of Quantitative Analysis Based on “Multi-indicators”

LIU Jin-quan, ZHANG Long   

  1. (School of Business, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China)
  • Received:2019-04-17 Revised:2019-04-17 Online:2019-11-25 Published:2019-11-26
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摘要: 新形势下,运用“多工具”调控“多目标”成为货币当局的现实选择。通过SV-TVP-FAVAR模型考察经济增长、物价稳定等多重目标下的货币政策调控工具选择问题。研究结果表明:数量型规则的调控效果整体优于价格型规则。不同阶段下,数量型和价格型规则的调控优势不同,二者均面临“多指标”下的“顾此失彼”困境,广义货币供给量为物价稳定和调控杠杆率目标下的最优政策工具,利率为经济增长和金融稳定目标下的最优政策工具。进一步研究表明,随着我国利率市场化改革的逐步推进,我国数量型和价格型规则的调控效果出现“此消彼长”现象。

关键词: 货币政策, 经济增长, 物价稳定, 杠杆率, 金融稳定

Abstract: Under the new situation, the use of “multi-tools” to regulate “multi-targets” has become a realistic choice for monetary authorities. This paper examines the choice of monetary policy regulation tools under the multi-targets of economic growth and price stability through the SV-TVP-FAVAR model. The results show that the effects of quantitative rules are better than those of the price-based rules. At different stages, the quantitative and price-based rules have different regulation advantages, and both quantitative and price-based rules face the dilemma of “attending to one thing and losing another” under “multi-indicators”. M2 is the optimal policy tool under the goal of price stability and leverage rate regulation, and R is the optimal policy tool under the goal of economic growth and financial stability. Further research shows that with the gradual advancement of the interest rate marketization reform there is a tradeoff effect between the quantitative and the price-based regulations.

Key words: monetary policy, economic growth, price stability, leverage rate, financial stability

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