Abstract: In recent years， with the rapid development of artificial intelligence， some scholars are concerned that in the near future， artificial intelligence may threaten human survival. This issue is examined from the philosophical and logical point of view so as to construct an argument of abduction. If artificial intelligence threatens human survival in the future， it must have emotional cognition. To acquire this ability， whole brain simulation is likely to be relied upon and the realization of this technology may face the “exponential explosion”. The current argumentation of this hypothesis is based on induction and does not have the necessary reliability. However， if the thesis of threat is only treated as a belief whereby a gambling similar to the “Pascal's wager” is conducted， risks of a belief becoming the reality can be huge. Thus， it is necessary to take some precautions.

Key words: artificial intelligence, threat, abduction, Pascal's wager