东北大学学报（自然科学版）

东北大学学报:自然科学版 ›› 2015, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 737-742.DOI: 10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2015.05.028

• 资源与土木工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

复合型工艺风险评估模型的研究及其现场应用

姚锡文1， 许开立1， 闫放1， 汤规成1,2   

  1. (1.东北大学 资源与土木工程学院， 辽宁 沈阳110819; 2.中国石油辽河石化公司， 辽宁 盘锦124002)
  • 收稿日期:2014-04-02 修回日期:2014-04-02 出版日期:2015-05-15 发布日期:2014-11-07
  • 通讯作者: 姚锡文
  • 作者简介:姚锡文(1987-)，男，山东五莲人，东北大学博士研究生； 许开立(1965-)，男，山东郓城人，东北大学教授，博士生导师.
  • 基金资助:
    辽宁省自然科学基金资助项目(2013020137).

Research on the Risk Evaluation Model for Composite Techniques and Its Field Application

YAO Xi-wen1，XU Kai-li1，YAN Fang1，TANG Gui-cheng1,2   

  1. 1. School of Resources & Civil Engineering， Northeastern University， Shenyang 110819， China; 2. Liaohe Petrochemical Company of China Petroleum， Panjin 124002， China.
  • Received:2014-04-02 Revised:2014-04-02 Online:2015-05-15 Published:2014-11-07
  • Contact: YAO Xi-wen
  • About author:-
  • Supported by:
    -

RichHTML

1

PDF (PC)

1022

摘要： 充分考虑石化装置的复杂工艺特点，建立了基于贝叶斯网络的危险与可操作性研究(HAZOP)、保护层分析(LOPA)、领结分析(Bow-Tie分析)于一体的复合型工艺风险评估模型.首先编制系统故障树，将其映射成对应贝叶斯网络，利用GeNIe软件实现贝叶斯双向推理进行故障预测和诊断，找出最容易导致事故的风险贝叶斯故障节点；然后运用HAZOP-LOPA集成分析研究该节点参数出现偏差的原因及后果，通过独立保护层失效概率评估风险等级；最后对剩余风险等级较高的事件进行Bow-Tie 分析，辨识出使保护层持续有效的关键活动，进而控制后果严重的工艺安全事故.以辽河石化公司的延迟焦化装置为例对该风险评估模型进行了现场应用.

关键词: 贝叶斯网络, 风险评估模型, 故障树, 保护层分析, 领结分析, 延迟焦化

Abstract: Taking into full account the complex process of a petrochemical plant， a risk evaluation model based on Bayesian networks for composite techniques was built， which integrates HAZOP， LOPA and Bow-tie analysis. Firstly， the system fault tree was prepared， which was mapped into corresponding Bayesian networks， and the GeNIe software was utilized for fault prediction and diagnosis with the two-way reasoning of Bayesian networks and for locating the Bayesian risk fault node which most likely leads to accidents. Secondly， the causes and consequences of deviation occurring in the node parameters were studied by combining HAZOP and LOPA， and the risk level was confirmed through the failure probability of identified protection layers. Lastly， Bow-Tie analysis was applied to the remaining higher risk events for identifying the key activities to continuously sustain IPL effectively and then preventing the serious technique safety accidents from happening. Moreover， this risk evaluation model was put into use in the delayed coking device of Liaohe Petrochemical Company.

Key words: Bayesian network, risk evaluation model, fault tree, LOPA, Bow-Tie analysis, delayed coking

中图分类号: