关键词: 财务计划, 随机优化, 储蓄策略, 个人消费偏好, 情景生成

Abstract: A multi-stage stochastic optimization model was developed for personal financial planning, of which the prospective returns from various assets, wage changes and the uncertainties of payment are taken into account, according to the characteristics of individual savings and consumption. The model was simulated in reference to our country's economic developmental conditions which was reflected by constructing scenario trees. The wage income, prices level and various returns from assets were estimated by use of vector self-regression models. According to different personal consumption preference and pension plans, the optimal personal savings, consumption and loan strategies were given to meet the needs of basic consumption, education payment and long-term objectives so as to secure the personal income after retirement and then satisfy personal desires for consumption.