关键词: 铝, 概率分布, 加权平均法, 平均使用寿命, 产品生命周期, 物质流分析

Abstract: The means of transportation were taken as examples to analyze their service lives in terms of three probability distributions, i.e., the normal, Weibull and Beta distributions. Combining the service life distributions of Al-containing products with the structure of consumers' demands for aluminum products in China from 2003 to 2007, the average service life of aluminum products was calculated to be 15~19 years by the weighted average method. The aluminum flow as a material flow of the life cycle of aluminum products in 2007 was analyzed via a tracking observation process from the alumina/aluminum production, processing/making of products and utilization up to scrapping/recycling, thus giving the materials flow indices of aluminum industry to obtain the variation of resource self-support ratio and the use ratio of aluminum scrap in China from 2003 to 2007. The overall use ratio of aluminum scrap was in the range from 13% to 17%. The quantity of aluminum scrap recycled and loss of aluminum in the life cycle of aluminum products from 2003 to 2007 were both analyzed. Then, some policies are suggested with the intention of making China's development of aluminum industry sustainable.