Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science)

Journal of Northeastern University ›› 2005, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (6): 599-602.DOI: -

• OriginalPaper • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Predicting large amount of accrued payables to redeem open-end funds on Bayes theory basis

Li, Xia (1); Wang, Jin-Yu (2); Cheng, Wei (3); Pan, De-Hui (1)   

  1. (1) School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, China; (2) Department of Business Administration, Shenyang Institute of Aeronautical Engineering, Shenyang 110034, China; (3) School of Business Administration, Shenyang University, Shenyang 110044, China
  • Received:2013-06-24 Revised:2013-06-24 Online:2005-06-15 Published:2013-06-24
  • Contact: Li, X.
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Abstract: The concepts of large amounts of redemption (LAR) and Bayes large amounts of redemption (BLAR) for open-end funds are suggested. The formula to calculate LAR is obtained on the basis of the theory of compound Poisson distribution and limitation. Because the parameters of redemption amounts distribution are uninterruptedly changing in case of open-end funds, it is more appropriate to predict the large amounts of redemption by using Bayes method. The formula to calculate BLAR is thus derived in normal distribution. In conclusion, a new reasonable way to keep away from the liquidity risk is provided to the fund management.

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