Abstract: Whether an innovative technology should be adopted early or with delay involves the construction of sustainable competitiveness. Based on Farzin’s optimal technology adoption model， the uncertainty of innovative technologies is redefined from two aspects of expected income and occurrence time of innovative technologies， a dynamic programming model for manufacturing enterprises is constructed to adopt innovative technologies， and a numerical example analysis is given. The research shows that for the technologies that appear or grow rapidly， the time strategy of enterprises is to wait and carefully evaluate， so as to avoid falling into the technology trap(the more introduced， the more backward); for technologies with large variable costs(equipment upgrading cost， manpower allocation and other management costs)， enterprises’ time strategy is to adopt them as soon as possible.

Key words: technical uncertainty; time strategy; innovative technology; innovation adoption