Abstract: Combining the net present value analysis of the real options with the Markov transition matrix, and using the real-estate enterpriser confidence index, the Markov-Bayesian transition matrix was constructed by which the changes of the macro-economic was reflected. Based on these, from the value of the real options contained by the investment decisions of the real estate enterprise, making use of the chance restriction to bring market price risk into the investment decision-making analytical framework, and discounting the cash flows by the required investment return rate of the different Markov states, a 0-1 integer chance programming was established to study the opportunity optimal investment decision based on the multi-stage scenario tree mode. Empirical analysis of the Jingjiang item invested by the Baosteel Group Enterprise Development Corporation was also presented.