东北大学学报（社会科学版）

东北大学学报（社会科学版） ›› 2016, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (5): 503-509.DOI: 10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2016.05.010

• 政治与公共管理研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于多维风险指数的农村留守儿童风险预警和分级干预机制研究

曹艳春1，戴建兵2   

  1. (1.华东师范大学公共管理学院，上海200062;2.上海应用技术大学人文学院，上海201418)
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-20 修回日期:2016-03-20 出版日期:2016-09-25 发布日期:2016-09-22
  • 通讯作者: 曹艳春
  • 作者简介:曹艳春(1975-)，女，湖南湘乡人，华东师范大学副教授，经济学博士，主要从事社会保障研究;戴建兵(1974-)，男，湖南邵东人，上海应用技术大学讲师，管理学博士，主要从事社会保障研究。
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究资助项目(13YJC840002);国家社会科学基金资助项目(16BGL149)。

Early Warning and Graded Intervention Mechanisms of the Rural Left-behind Based on Multidimensional Risk Index

CAO Yan-chun1， DAI Jian-bing2   

  1. (1. School of Public Administration， East China Normal University， Shanghai 200062， China; 2. College of Humanities， Shanghai Institute of Technology， Shanghai 201418， China)
  • Received:2016-03-20 Revised:2016-03-20 Online:2016-09-25 Published:2016-09-22
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摘要： 新型城镇化进程中，留守儿童远离父母，处于无人监管或监管不力的状态，面临多维风险。通过构建意外事故风险、双向犯罪风险、心理亚健康风险、身体亚健康风险、行为失范风险、交往不足风险、教育失效风险和环境不良风险等8个维度27个指标的多维风险指数，运用专家打分法，对指标两两之间相对重要性进行打分并计算指标权重，运用AHP方法求得每个留守儿童基于多维风险指数的综合风险值，并将综合风险值分为五个级次，建立相应的五级预警和干预机制，以缓解或降低留守儿童面临的各种风险，加强对留守儿童的保护和引导。

关键词: 留守儿童, 多维风险指数, 风险预警, 分级干预

Abstract: In the process of new urbanization， Chinas left-behind children are in a state of lacking regulation or supervision， thus facing great social risks. A multidimensional risk index was constructed based on 8 dimensions and 27 indicators such as accident risk， two-way crime risk， psychological sub-health risk， physical health risk， behavior anomie risk， communication failure risk， education failure risk and adverse environment risk. The weights of such indexes were calculated by using the expert scoring method， and each left-behind childs comprehensive multidimensional risk index was obtained by using the AHP method. The integrated risk value was divided into five levels and five warning and intervention mechanisms were established accordingly so as to alleviate or reduce social risks the left-behind children face and strengthen their protection and guidance.

Key words: left-behind children, multidimensional risk index, early warning, graded intervention

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