Abstract:

Correctly understanding and addressing the relationship between long-term care insurance （LTCI） policies and fertility intentions is of great significance for achieving effective synergy between social security policies and population policies， as well as promoting high-quality population development. Based on the panel data from China Family Panel Studies （CFPS）， methods such as PSM-DID are employed to examine the impact of LTCI on fertility intentions. The results indicate that LTCI policies significantly reduce residents’ fertility intentions， and this conclusion remains valid across a series of robustness tests. Additionally， the inhibitory effect of LTCI on fertility intentions is more pronounced among women aged 35 and below， individuals with higher incomes， and rural residents. Further mechanism analysis reveals that the weakening of traditional fertility concepts， increased female labor force participation， and upgrading of family consumption structures are the key channels through which LTCI crowds out fertility intentions. Accordingly， it is necessary to strengthen LTCI’s support for informal care within families， improve supporting policies to protect women’s reproductive rights， and reduce families’ reproductive costs.

Key words: long-term care insurance, fertility intention, care support, reproductive costs