关键词: 城市家庭, 预期贫困, 贫困脆弱性, 可持续性发展

Abstract:

Urban poverty is not only a major obstacle to the realization of a well-off society for all， but also the focus of the future anti-poverty system. This paper constructs the expected poverty probability model to measure the poverty vulnerability of urban families and selects the Probit model to identify and discuss the decision mechanism of whether the households have poverty vulnerability. The results show that the regional economic growth， the improvement of medical and housing security， the popularization of social services and the deepening of the category of community education have significant anti-poverty effects. Child support， education costs， psychological and disease risks are important factors driving poverty vulnerability， and increasing the source of income and the holding rate of medical insurance can effectively reduce the probability of poverty vulnerability， while female householder， marriage， balanced investment in family education， the optimization of material capital and the use of clean energy are more conducive to strengthening the endogenous motivation for family poverty alleviation. Based on the above conclusions， this paper puts forward targeted policy suggestions on the sustainable development of urban family poverty alleviation from the aspects of exogenous security and endogenous “hematopoiesis” respectively.

Key words: urban household, expected poverty, poverty vulnerability, sustainable development