关键词: 动态联盟企业, 风险管理, 风险识别, 风险概率, 贝叶斯网络, 不确定性

Abstract: According to the uncertain characteristics of information in virtual enterprise, the Bayesian network is used to identify its risk probability. Discussing the way to construct and analyze the Bayesian network, the dependency relationship of various information variables of such an enterprise is described with Bayesian network, so as to identify the different risk probabilities. Simulation results suggested that Bayesian network could effectively describe the dependency relationship of the uncertain information variables of a virtual enterprise, i.e., an effective method to identify risk probability.