关键词: 连续系统, 次序统计量, Weibull分布, 参数变换, 参数估计, 可靠性

Abstract: Because of lack of valid mathematical model to analyze the reliability of a continuous system such as pipeline, the continuous system is discredited to become a series system composed of a great number of virtual elements. A Weibull expression of the strength distribution of continuous system is deduced by minimal order statistic, then, the strength distribution is determined by parameter transform and able to be expressed by the parameters obtained from tests, and those parameters are evaluated using the maximum likelihood estimate. As a result, a reliability model of system level stress-strength interference is developed available to reflect the failure dependence among segments, and simulate the relationship between reliability and length of continuous system. It is shown that the reliability model developed can provide a basis for the reliability assessment of continuous systems of different sizes, and the reliability of a large-size continuous system is lower bounded.