Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Hebei Province Based on the STIRPAT and Decoupling Models

doi:10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2017.02.030

Abstract

Abstract: The decoupling state of Hebei Province from 2007 to 2014 was analyzed by using the decoupling model， and the results showed that the decoupling state has changed from the growing coupling to the weak decoupling， which finally realizes the strong decoupling in volatility. The influencing factors of carbon emission in Hebei Province were analyzed by using the STIRPAT model， and the carbon emission of 2015-2022 in Hebei Province was predicted by using the grey model GM (1， 1). The results showed: industrial structure has the biggest influence on carbon emission; coal consumption， per capita GDP， urban population proportion and overall population have promoting effect on carbon emission， while energy price and expenditure on R&D have a small influence coefficient on carbon emission; and energy structure and energy intensity have a certain inhibitory effect on carbon emission. The prediction results from the GM (1， 1) model showed that Hebei Province should pay greater attention to the development trend of carbon emission， face the pressure of low carbon development， and achieve low carbon economy in Hebei Province by adjusting all the influencing factors.

Key words: STIRPAT model, decoupling model, carbon emission, influencing factor, factor analysis, GM (1, 1)

CLC Number:

F062.1

YANG Mo， CHEN Kai. Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Hebei Province Based on the STIRPAT and Decoupling Models[J]. Journal of Northeastern University Natural Science, 2017, 38(2): 300-304.

References

[1]宋晓辉，张裕芬，汪艺梅，等.基于IPAT扩展模型分析人口因素对碳排放的影响［J］.环境科学研究，2012，25(1):109-115.(Song Xiao-hui，Zhang Yu-fen，Wang Yi-mei，et al.Analysis of impacts of demographic factors on carbon emissions based on the IPAT model［J］. Research of Environmental Sciences，2012，25(1):109-115.)
[2]王永刚，王旭，孙长虹，等.IPAT及其扩展模型的应用研究进展［J］.应用生态学报，2015，26(3):949-957.(Wang Yong-gang，Wang Xu，Sun Chang-hong，et al.Research progress on the application of IPAT model and its variants［J］. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology，2015，26(3):949-957.)
[3]York R，Rosa E A，Dietz T.STIRPAT，IPAT and impact:analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts［J］.Ecological Economics，2003，46(3):351-365.
[4]Waggoner P E，Ausubel J H.A framework for sustainability science:a renovated IPAT identity［J］.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences，2002，99(12):7860-7885.
[5]陈操操，刘春兰，汪浩，等.北京市能源消费碳足迹影响因素分析——基于STIRPAT模型和偏小二乘模型［J］.中国环境科学，2014，36(6):1622-1632.(Chen Cao-cao，Liu Chun-lan，Wang Hao，et al.Examining the impact factors of energy consumption related carbon footprints using the STIRPAT model and PLS model in Beijing［J］.China Environmental Science，2014，36(6):1622-1632.)
[6]Shi A.The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions，1975-1996:evidence from pooled cross-country data［J］.Ecological Economics，2003，44(1):24-42.
[7]Shahbaz M，Loganathan N，Sbia R，et al.The effect of urbanization，affluence and trade openness on energy consumption:a time series analysis in Malaysia［J］.Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews，2015，47(11):683-693.
[8]Kaya Y.Impact of carbon dioxide emission on GNP growth:interpretation of proposed scenarios［R］.Paris:IPCC Energy and Industry Subgroup，Response Strategies Working Group，1990.
[9]Duro J A，Padilla E.International inequalities in per capita CO₂ emissions:a decomposition methodology by Kaya factors ［J］.Energy Economics，2006，28(2):170-187.
[10]林伯强，刘希颖.中国城市化阶段的碳排放:影响因素和减排策略［J］.经济研究，2010(8):66-78.(Lin Bo-qiang，Liu Xi-ying.China’s carbon dioxide emissions under the urbanization process:influence factors and abatement policies［J］.Economic Research Journal，2010(8):66-78.)
[11]Kraft J，Kraft A.On the relationship between energy and GNP［J］.Journal of Energy and Development，1978，3:401-403.
[12]Yu E S H，Choi J Y.The causal relationship between electricity and GNP:an international comparison ［J］.Journal of Energy and Development，1985，10:249-272.
[13]Glasure Y U，Lee A R.Cointegration，error-correction，and the relationship between GDP and electricity:the case of South Korea and Singapore［J］.Resource and Electricity Economics，1997，20(1):17-25.
[14]Soytas U，Sari R.Energy consumption and GDP:causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets［J］.Energy Economics，2003，25(1):33-37.