Journal of Northeastern University Natural Science ›› 2019, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 425-429.DOI: 10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2019.03.023

• Resources & Civil Engineering • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Durability Risk Assessment of Stay Cables Based on Cloud Theory

LIANG Li1, XING Guan-hua1, WU Feng-yuan2   

  1. 1. School of Resources & Civil Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China; 2. School of Civil Engineering, Shenyang Jianzhu University, Shenyang 110168, China.
  • Received:2017-12-29 Revised:2017-12-29 Online:2019-03-15 Published:2019-03-08
  • Contact: XING Guan-hua
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Abstract: Reasonable evaluation of risk can effectively avoid accidents and provide forward-looking opinions for the project safety. A spatial risk analysis method based on cloud theory and ALARP criterion was proposed. First of all, "predictability" is introduced as a risk index to establish a three-dimensional risk space. Subsequently, the concept of "the risk interface" is defined, and the interface equation is established based on the level of the risk index. By modifying the variable coefficient, the risk space shape is adjusted to realize the empowerment of risk indicators under different assessment needs. Finally, the cloud models of risk space and evaluation sample are established according to the principle of cloud theory. Based on sample cloud model, a large number of cloud drops are generated and brought into normal cloud generator to calculate average certain degree, which is a basis for determining the final risk rating. It realizes the complete quantification of the risk assessment process. The consistency and feasibility between this method and standard are verified by taking durability risk evaluation as an example.

Key words: as low as reasonable practical (ALARP) criterion, cloud theory, risk evaluation, stay cables, durability

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