Abstract: Aluminum production and consumption have increased quickly in China in recent years， while bauxite is in severely shortage and has to been imported from overseas. With the increment of aluminum social stock， the old scrap will become larger and play a greater role in aluminum industry. The social stock of aluminum， average age， old scrap recovery rate and regeneration index were analyzed. The results showed that social stock of aluminum in China increased from 7.23 million tons to 103.55 million tons in the period 1990~2010. The average age of aluminum products in social stock was about 4.3 years， and the regeneration index of depreciated aluminum products and recovery rate of aluminum social stock were 0.0747t/t and 1.17 percent， respectively， in 2010. Three scenarios analysis for different aluminum consumption conditions were carried out， and under the third scenario: the amount of aluminum social stock will reach 6 hundred million tons in 2035 and keep constant at 5.7 hundred million tons in 2055. In the year 2040， the average age of aluminum products in social stock will reach its maximum value at 7.13 years， the regeneration index of depreciated aluminum products and recovery rate of aluminum social stock will also get their maximum value in the same year， and the values were 0.79t/t and 5.05%， respectively. The analyzing results will give some references for the policy making of aluminum industry.

Key words: aluminum, aluminum scrap, social stock, average age, recovery rate, regeneration index of depreciated products