东北大学学报（社会科学版）

东北大学学报（社会科学版） ›› 2023, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (6): 45-56.DOI: 10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2023.06.006

• 经济与管理研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

需求变化下中国进口种类增长福利效应测算——基于替代弹性混合估计方法

陶宏展   

  1. (东北大学工商管理学院，辽宁沈阳110169)
  • 发布日期:2023-11-27
  • 通讯作者: 陶宏展
  • 作者简介:陶宏展(1988-)，男，河南郑州人，东北大学博士研究生，主要从事国际贸易理论研究。
  • 基金资助:
    海南省哲学社会科学规划青年资助项目(HNSK(QN)20-69);河南省社会科学院创新工程资助项目(23A11);河南省哲学社会科学规划专题资助项目(2023ZT025)。

Estimation of the Welfare Gains from Import Variety Under Taste Shocks in China Based on the Elasticity-substitution Hybrid Estimators

TAO Hongzhan   

  1. (School of Business Administration， Northeastern University， Shenyang 110169， China)
  • Published:2023-11-27
  • Contact: -
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摘要： 基于1996—2019年CEPII-BACI数据库中国HS6位数进口产品数据，借鉴精确价格指数和替代弹性混合估计方法，测算了需求变化情形下中国进口种类增长福利效应。结果发现:忽略需求变化会严重低估中国进口种类增长福利效应。1996—2019年，需求变化情形下，混合估计方法测算的传统价格指数向上偏误32.755%，进口种类增长福利效应相当于GDP的5.229%，而标准估计方法低估进口种类增长福利效应达到GDP的2.623%。福利分解显示，HS6位数产品层面和ISIC2位数行业层面均呈现集中趋势;BEC分解表明中国“重生产和轻消费”的进口模式依然明显。研究完善了需求变化情形下进口种类增长福利效应估算理论，为中国实施扩大进口战略和构建新发展格局提供了重要的经验证据。

关键词: 进口种类; 需求变化; 混合估计方法; 福利效应; 新发展格局

Abstract: Using the data of HS6 product level of China's import from CEPII-BACI database during the period from 1996 to 2019， the exact price index and the elasticity-substitution hybrid estimators are used to calculate the welfare gains from import variety under taste shocks in China. The results show that the welfare gains from import variety will be underestimated without consideration for taste shocks. The upward bias in the conventional import price index is 32.755% and the gains are equivalent to 5.229% of GDP under taste shocks with the hybrid estimators from 1996 to 2019. However， the welfare gains from import variety are underestimated by 2.623% of GDP with the standard estimation method. Moreover， the welfare decomposition suggests that both the HS6 product level and ISIC2 industry level show a concentrated trend， while the BEC decomposition shows that China's import still values production over consumption. The theory of estimating the welfare gains from import variety under taste shocks is improved， and important empirical evidence is provided for China to continue implementing the strategy of expanding imports and building a new development pattern.

Key words: import variety; taste shock; hybrid estimator; welfare gain; new development pattern

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