Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science) ›› 2023, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (6): 45-56.DOI: 10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2023.06.006

• Economics and Management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Estimation of the Welfare Gains from Import Variety Under Taste Shocks in China Based on the Elasticity-substitution Hybrid Estimators

TAO Hongzhan   

  1. (School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China)
  • Published:2023-11-27
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Abstract: Using the data of HS6 product level of China's import from CEPII-BACI database during the period from 1996 to 2019, the exact price index and the elasticity-substitution hybrid estimators are used to calculate the welfare gains from import variety under taste shocks in China. The results show that the welfare gains from import variety will be underestimated without consideration for taste shocks. The upward bias in the conventional import price index is 32.755% and the gains are equivalent to 5.229% of GDP under taste shocks with the hybrid estimators from 1996 to 2019. However, the welfare gains from import variety are underestimated by 2.623% of GDP with the standard estimation method. Moreover, the welfare decomposition suggests that both the HS6 product level and ISIC2 industry level show a concentrated trend, while the BEC decomposition shows that China's import still values production over consumption. The theory of estimating the welfare gains from import variety under taste shocks is improved, and important empirical evidence is provided for China to continue implementing the strategy of expanding imports and building a new development pattern.

Key words: import variety; taste shock; hybrid estimator; welfare gain; new development pattern

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