Theoretical Calculation Method of Reliability for Multi-state Phased-Mission Systems

doi:10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2022.05.012

Abstract

Abstract: Multi-state phased-mission systems(MS-PMSs)are often used in critical systems and require high reliability. However， their reliability calculation is relatively difficult. In order to make an accurate prediction of reliability for such systems， the theoretical calculation method of reliability for MS-PMSs with component degradation conforming to Markov process is studied. First， the reliability for such systems is defined based on the relationship between working efficiency and demand. Then， according to the conditional probabilistic theory， the probability of mission success is formulated. On the basis， according to the Markov property of component degradation and the dependence on component states among phases， the theoretical calculation method of reliability for MS-PMSs is derived， and a fast exhaustion method of component state combination is proposed to improve the computational efficiency of the calculation method. Finally， by comparing with the Monte-Carlo simulation method， the accuracy and computational effectiveness of the derived theoretical calculation method are verified.

Key words: Markov process; multi-state phased-mission system(MS-PMS); conditional probability; system reliability; Monte-Carlo simulation

CLC Number:

TB114.3

SUN Yao， SUN Zhi-li， ZHOU Jie， WANG Jian. Theoretical Calculation Method of Reliability for Multi-state Phased-Mission Systems[J]. Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science), 2022, 43(5): 689-695.

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