Abstract: Based on an analysis of the drawbacks of the existing mechanical structure reliability sampling methods and the main factors influencing the estimation accuracy of failure probability， an analysis method of mechanical structural reliability based on the Kriging model and adaptive sampling strategy is proposed. The proposed sampling strategy combines random sampling and clustering algorithm， and ensures in probability that the new sample points locate themselves in the area that makes significant contribution to failure probability and avoids unnecessary sampling in the unimportant areas. The condition of convergence for the proposed Kriging model is deduced mainly based on the law of large numbers and central limit theorem. Two examples are adopted to illustrate the convergence process， accuracy and stability of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can estimate failure probability with high accuracy in the condition that the number of calls to structural performance function is small.

Key words: Kriging model, mechanical structural reliability, failure probability, adaptive sampling strategy, Monte Carlo method