Journal of Northeastern University Natural Science ›› 2019, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (8): 1211-1216.DOI: 10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2019.08.026

• Management Science • Previous Articles    

Prediction of Carbon Emission and Selection of Optimal Scenario in Liaoning Province

HOU Hui, YIN Yun, BU Man-man, HE Jie   

  1. School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China.
  • Received:2018-07-16 Revised:2018-07-16 Online:2019-08-15 Published:2019-09-04
  • Contact: HOU Hui
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Abstract: Based on the economic development growth rate,energy-saving and emission-reduction constraints, and LMDI decomposition model of the factors that influence carbon emission, the different models of economic/social development variables and energy-saving/emission-reduction variables were combined into six scenarios. The extended SPIRPAT model is used to predict and analyze the carbon emission of Liaoning from 2016 to 2040, and it is concluded that the ‘medium growth and strong emission-reduction’ scenario is the best choice for Liaoning. Under the optimal scenario, the increase of energy consumption in Liaoning in 2020 over 2015 will be much lower than the constraint standard. The provincial planning target of non-fossil energy sources proportion will be reached in 2020 and the national planning target will be reached in 2030. The drop of carbon emission will reach its peak in 2023, and the reduction in carbon emission intensity in 2020 and 2030 over 2005 will exceed the national planning target. If the government can change the mode of economic development effectively, adjust the industrial structure, and improve the development and utilization of clean energy, Liaoning would be able to achieve the goal of energy-saving and emission-reduction without the expense of economic development.

Key words: carbon emission, energy consumption, scenario prediction, economic development, energy-saving and emission-reduction

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