Analysis of Waste Aluminum Recovery in China’s Automobile Industry Based on System Dynamic Model

doi:10.12068/j.issn.1005-3026.2020.01.012

Abstract

Abstract: Analysis of waste aluminum recovery in China’s automobile industry was carried out by a system dynamic model. When the average service life of the automobile assumes to be 12 years， the annual recycling number of the used automobiles in China will be 24.5992 million and the annual recovered aluminum weight from these automobiles will be 1.8242 million tons in 2025. It would be 21.7275 million for the annual recycling number and 1.3459 million tons for the annual recovered aluminum if the average service life of the automobiles becomes 15 years. Meanwhile， there will be 3.5418 million tons of bauxite saved from the recycling. After considering that the recycling ratio of aluminum-containing processed materials， the annual recycling ratio of automobile castings and the annual remanufacturing ratio of automobile castings are 0.9， 0.61 and 0.3， respectively， the annual recovered aluminum of the used automobiles can reach 1.6025 million tons in 2025. It is very helpful to alleviate the shortage of aluminum resources in China and reduce the external dependence of waste scrap aluminum.

Key words: system dynamics, lightweight, waste aluminum, recovery, simulation

CLC Number:

TF821

YUE Qiang， XUE Meng， ZHANG Yu-jie， LI Shu-peng. Analysis of Waste Aluminum Recovery in China’s Automobile Industry Based on System Dynamic Model[J]. Journal of Northeastern University Natural Science, 2020, 41(1): 68-73.

References

[1]International Aluminium Institute.Statistics［EB/OL］.(2018-08-15)［2019-01-15］.http://www.world-aluminium.org/statistics.
[2]Yue Q，Wang H M，Lu Z W，et al.Analysis of anthropogenic aluminum cycle in China［J］.Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China，2014，24:1134-1144.
[3]Jenseit W，Stahl H，Wollny V，et al.Recovery options for plastic parts from end-of-life vehicles:an eco-efficiency assessment［EB/OL］.(2003-03-12)［2018-01-16］.https://www.oeko.de/oekodoc/151/2003-039-en.pdf.
[4]Ohno H，Matsubae K，Nakajima K，et al.Unintentional flow of alloying elements in steel during recycling of end-of-life vehicles［J］.Journal of Industrial Ecology，2014，18(2):242-253.
[5]丁涛，曾庆禄.基于资源再生的废旧汽车回收利用研究［J］.环境工程，2014(sup1):721-724.(Ding Tao，Zeng Qing-lu.Study on recycling and utilization of scrap automobile for resource reusing［J］.Environmental Engineering，2014(sup1):721-724.)
[6]Tian J，Chen M.Assessing the economics of processing end-of-life vehicles through manual dismantling［J］.Waste Management，2016，56:384-395.
[7]Zhang T L，Zheng M Q，Zhang Z M.Quantitative study on characteristics of the Weibull distribution［J］.Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology，1999，8(4):357-363.
[8]中国汽车技术研究中心.中国汽车工业年鉴1991—2018［M］.北京:中国汽车工业协会，2018.(Chinese Automotive Technology & Research Centre.China automotive industry yearbook 1991—2018［M］.Beijing:China Automotive Industry Association，2018.)
[9]黄宁宁.中国汽车行业钢铁动态物质流代谢研究［D］.北京:清华大学，2012.(Huang Ning-ning.Iron and steel material flow metabolism in China automobile industry［D］.Beijing:Tsinghua University，2012.)
[10]Brunner P H，Rechberger H.Practical handbook of material flow analysis［M］.Boca Raton:Lewis Publishers，2004:15-19.
[11]Melo M T.Statistical analysis of metal scrap generation:the case of aluminium in Germany［J］.Resources，Conservation and Recycling，1999，26(2):91-113.
[12]谢林明.汽车报废回收阶段生态评价及其软件开发［D］.长沙:湖南大学，2017.(Xie Lin-ming.Ecological assessment of recycling of end-of-life vehicles and the relevant software development［D］.Changsha:Hunan University，2017.)
[13]Peterson D W，Eberlein R L.Reality check:a bridge between systems thinking and system dynamics［J］.System Dynamic Review，1994，10(2/3):159-174.
[14]Ford D N，Sterman J D.Dynamic modeling of product development processes［J］.System Dynamics Review，1998，14(1):31-68.
[15]赵红梅.基于Gompertz曲线模型之上的中国千人汽车保有量中长期预测［J］.工业技术经济，2012(7):7-23.(Zhao Hong-mei.The medium and long term forecast of China’s vehicle stock per 1000 person based on the Gompertz model［J］.Journal of Industrial Technological Economics，2012(7):7-23.)
[16]李龙，夏承东，宋友宝，等.铝合金在新能源汽车工业中的应用现状及展望［J］.轻铝合金加工技术，2017，45(9):18-26.(Li Long，Xia Cheng-dong，Song You-bao，et al.Application status and outlook of aluminum alloys in new energy vehicles［J］.Light Alloy Fabrication Technology，2017，45(9):18-26.)
[15]关守平，房少纯.一种新型的区间-粒子群优化算法［J］.东北大学学报(自然科学版)，2012，33(10):1381-1384.(Guan Shou-ping，Fang Shao-chun.A new particle swarm optimization algorithm［J］.Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science)，2012，33(10):1381-1384.)